The Downside of Predictions -- Sometimes They're Just Wrong
A few posts ago I opined about the brilliance of the colour forecasters at Pantone – who have successfully been selecting the colour of the year, year after year after year. The Pantone colour for 2011 is “Honeysuckle”. The process for selecting the colour of the year appears to be quite intelligent – it’s about the “narrative” and getting the story right.
The narrative for Honeysuckle made sense very early in 2011: “In times of stress, we need something to lift our spirits. Honeysuckle is a captivating, stimulating color that gets the adrenaline going – perfect to ward off the blues."
2011 was supposed to be the year of calm after the storm – i.e. the big recession. And before 2012 the year of conflict (due to the election in the U.S.) and who knows what else.
Well, as it turns out, 2011 is turning out to be one of the most conflicted years we have seen in a long time:
- The European sovereign debt crisis is a never ending issue.
- The Middle East is in turmoil – and in transition.
- The U.S. government is conflicted and trying to solve a short and long term debt crisis.
- Japan (the third largest economy in the world) has had to deal with a triple whammy – the largest earthquake in its history, a tsunami and a nuclear disaster.
- And never mind the rising cost of oil and food and other global commodities.
...The moral of the story – predicting is as complicated as I always thought.
Ruth Lukaweski